150 Years of Evidence Shows Tariffs Lower Inflation

I did not see this coming. https://t.co/Gu989x0lKR

— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) November 16, 2025

… prices and employment, a finding with profound implications for understanding President Donald Trump’s trade policy and the proper response by the Federal Reserve.

Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco examined major tariff changes from 1870 through 2020 across the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. Their conclusion challenges the conventional wisdom that dominated economic policy debates in recent years: when countries raise tariffs, prices actually fall, not rise.

“We find that a tariff hike raises unemployment and lowers inflation,” the authors, Régis Barnichon and Aayush Singh, write in their working paper released this month.”This goes against the predictions of standard models, whereby CPI inflation should go up in response to higher tariffs.”

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