Don’t Actually Have the Money

They don’t actually have the money

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 22, 2025

i genuinely respect your accomplishments and think you are the most inspiring entrepreneur of our time

— Sam Altman (@sama) January 22, 2025

SoftBank has well under $10B secured. I have that on good authority.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 22, 2025

wrong, as you surely know.

want to come visit the first site already under way?

this is great for the country. i realize what is great for the country isn't always what's optimal for your companies, but in your new role i hope you'll mostly put 🇺🇸 first.

— Sam Altman (@sama) January 22, 2025

Altman literally testified to Congress that he wouldn’t get OpenAI compensation and now he wants $10 billion! What a liar. https://t.co/YpHvcm0WZa

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 23, 2025

On the other hand, Satya definitely does have the money https://t.co/VGBObPG7fM

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 23, 2025

Stargate is a great name but the $500b is a ridiculous number and no one should take it seriously unless SoftBank is going to sell all of their BABA and ARM.

SoftBank has $38b in cash, $142b in debt and generates $3ish billion in FCF per BBG. They own $143b in ARM and $18b in…

— Gavin Baker (@GavinSBaker) January 22, 2025

… BABA. If they start selling ARM, their stake will be worth much less very quickly.

Oracle has $11b in cash, $88b in debt and generates $10b in FCF.

OpenAI is burning cash.

MGX did not commit to a number and is a $100b fund. Maybe 10% of the fund goes into this best case.

Nvidia will limit how much they invest in any one model company (they don’t need a monopsony). Maybe $5b.

Barring the aforementioned SoftBank ARM sale, might be able to put together $50b in equity funding over several years. Can obviously finance the GPUs and put debt on the JV.

Nowhere close to $500b. Everyone should just start issuing press releases for $1 trillion AI projects.

BTW love it that the ticker MGX which is a biotech company is up 33% on this.

If you a professional investor or analyst and you took $500b at face value - or even worse wrote a *note* about this - you should resign in disgrace.